The ETF Business Review is not in the business of predicting market drops. We are in the business of improving the bottom-line of fund companies and asset managers. We are in the business of knowing what funds will sell, where and why. And just by our nature, we understand how international links impact the market. This is why fund firms have voted with their feet in signing with us. Very often, we make market calls, like the one below from May 7th. Since this prediction of impending correction, the S&P 500 is down nearly 700 basis points. To benefit our readers, we are including a short narrative of the ETF Business Review, May 7th:
May 7, Boston, MA: Welcome to the 121th weekly issue of the ETF Business Review. As of this writing, the equity markets globally have been breaking down in terms of breadth and leadership. Last night we learned that France has elected a socialist President - that is not going to play well with Germany, as the French will pressure for easy solutions, high taxation of the wealthy, and no real reforms. The EU and its currency will continue to break down. Nationalistic attitudes, tariffs and border checks will ensue. At the same time in the U.S., we face insurmountable fiscal, budget and high taxation problems. The situation is not that rosy in China, although they do hold the world's manufacturing - one of the reasons why the rest of the world is catching fire. And there is not much politicians can do but make things worse. Take a look at the Gallup poll in this issue - investors are clinging to savings and gold, this is why mutual fund flows have been unimpressive here and in Europe. It is becoming likely, we are going to see a correction of 5-15% take place. Potentially such weakness will be countered by more global central bank printing. This will play well for high-income ETFs, Obama, and...inflation. In other news, we learned that Vanguard is planning to launch its active ETFs in two months' time. We also learned Senate will continue to re-engineer ETF regulation through additional time-wasting meetings. It seems very 'wrong' in DC to keep things simple - and let the market work its magic. Last, do not forget that this week we have the IMN ETF conference in Boston, and the ICI general meeting in DC.
May 7, Boston, MA: Welcome to the 121th weekly issue of the ETF Business Review. As of this writing, the equity markets globally have been breaking down in terms of breadth and leadership. Last night we learned that France has elected a socialist President - that is not going to play well with Germany, as the French will pressure for easy solutions, high taxation of the wealthy, and no real reforms. The EU and its currency will continue to break down. Nationalistic attitudes, tariffs and border checks will ensue. At the same time in the U.S., we face insurmountable fiscal, budget and high taxation problems. The situation is not that rosy in China, although they do hold the world's manufacturing - one of the reasons why the rest of the world is catching fire. And there is not much politicians can do but make things worse. Take a look at the Gallup poll in this issue - investors are clinging to savings and gold, this is why mutual fund flows have been unimpressive here and in Europe. It is becoming likely, we are going to see a correction of 5-15% take place. Potentially such weakness will be countered by more global central bank printing. This will play well for high-income ETFs, Obama, and...inflation. In other news, we learned that Vanguard is planning to launch its active ETFs in two months' time. We also learned Senate will continue to re-engineer ETF regulation through additional time-wasting meetings. It seems very 'wrong' in DC to keep things simple - and let the market work its magic. Last, do not forget that this week we have the IMN ETF conference in Boston, and the ICI general meeting in DC.
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